Why Andrew Luck’s Window for “Greatness” Might Be Closing

A few short years ago, ahead of the 2012 NFL Draft, there was one name that was all the rage. This name was none other than prize quarterbacking prodigy Andrew Luck out of Stanford. Not only was the pedigree supposedly there, being the offspring of another former NFL quarterback Oliver Luck, but according to every scout, pundit, coach, and analyst that salivated over the prospect, the talent and natural ability was there also. This football player, this man, this quarterbacking “GOD” was sure to be the next big thing in the NFL and surely the best quarterback in the league someday.

Fast forward five years, and we are still waiting on Andrew Luck to take the Colts deep in the playoffs, let alone to a super bowl. People will point to everything except the right thing in attempting to excuse his results over the course of his first several seasons, however one thing remains the same and always constant. When the team wins it is all because of Andrew Luck, but when they are not as successful, he supposedly did all he could, not unlike any other quarterback in this league. Unlike any other QB however, Luck was touted as the one who would be the next in line behind the likes of Tom Brady and dare I say an Aaron Rodgers, but as many including myself are starting to question, “will that ever happen?” Stick to your guns if you do, but I am firmly planted on the non-believer side of things, and here are a few reasons why.

Volume of QB Talent All Around him

When looking at the Andrew Luck situation, the first thing that people usually point to are his raw numbers, which usually isn’t a bad first step, however the most important number in relation to Andrew Luck to me is the number of viable competitors he has for the title of “elite” or “top dog”. Although even thinking about Andrew Luck in this light may be getting ahead of ourselves, as he hasn’t begun to scratch the surface of reaching that status himself, this is just important as he was so highly touted and expected to do so. In looking at the rest of the league and thinking about “young” and potentially elite quarterbacks in or around Luck’s “era”, you think about Dak Prescott, Jimmy G (who can’t even get on the field in NE), Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota just to name a few of the somewhat proven crop. Thinking about the rookies with high potential that we haven’t quite seen in Mitch Trubisky and Patrick Mahomes, and ones that we have and liked very much thus far in Deshaun Watson, you have to at least think about where Luck fits in with this class. This isn’t to say that he isn’t, can’t, or won’t be better than any mentioned on this list however what it does say is that with the sheer number of up and coming young elite signal callers, taking the title of “Best QB on the Planet” will only get that much harder.

Younger/Better Players

Even without the sheer amount of viable and likewise elite competition out there for “Best QB”, are we even sure that Luck is and/or will be better than some of the other options? Although some would argue either way, I would go no, not for certain. In comparing the first two seasons between Jameis Winston and Andrew Luck, I would undoubtedly say Jameis’ were better. While Luck may have surpassed him by a mere 3 or 4 hundred yards in his rookie season, Jameis’ completion percentage and Quarterback rating were much better. In looking at their second seasons, Jameis had a better completion percentage, more yards, and about the same Quarterback rating as Luck. In comparing Luck to Marcus Mariota, Mariota boasts higher completion percentages across his first two seasons, probably due to the system, but also has less yardage across them both, which is also due to the system he runs. The key indicator in this comparison though is how much higher of a QB rating that Mariota boasts across both of the seasons. In Luck’s first season he had a QBR of 76.5, while Mariota’s was 91.5. In their second season’s, Luck improved drastically to a rating of 87, but Mariota would climb as well to a QBR of 95.6. Even outside of the numbers themselves, it just seems as though in most moments where Tennessee or Tampa needs a play from their guys, they come up big. This just doesn’t ever seem to be the case with Luck. Outside of those two guys alone, you also have some of the others mentioned including big money man Derek Carr and former MVP Cam Newton, who would probably have something to say about the entire scenario as well.

A Bit Overrated?

For all the hype that surrounded the kid coming into the league, and surrounding the beginning of every subsequent season since he has been drafted, you’d think he was Roger Staubach, Joe Namath, or Joe Montana. Every year around this time we always hear how “this year is the year” or how “Luck is primed for a huge season”, and it has never quite panned out. In fact, and what seems like it has also been something heard quite a bit over the past few seasons, Luck is hurt heading into this particular season and actually listed on the PUP or Physically Unable to Perform list with a lingering shoulder issue. Seems mighty hard to set the league a blaze with a bad wing, now doesn’t it?

Even outside of the injury history, where his durability could also be questioned, shouldn’t a player of his supposed ilk have taken the Colts somewhere by now? Maybe a Super Bowl is a reach, but is a conference title game too much to ask of the “next great QB” who could be “one of the best of all time”? In thinking about these very instances, his injury history and the lack of team success, his “fanboys” and “fangirls” will point to a lack of ability to put a team around him, placing all the blame on the Colts organization and you can do that. My point is that no matter what or who has been around him, and more so especially when all that says is that the team has been built specifically towards and to cater to his strengths as a player, when a player is hyped, propped, and anointed as much as he was without accomplishing anything, he should literally carry you to a conference title game at least. Andrew Luck quite simply has not lived up to his hype thus far, and that makes him extremely overrated.

It’s kind of like seeing previews to a film and becoming extremely excited about seeing this particular film, only to see it, and realize that the “hype” or “previews” were as good as it got. That is what watching Andrew Luck has been like thus far in his career, and for his sake, The Colt’s and their fan’s sake, and finally for the reputations of all those that said he was “football Jesus”, let’s hope he turns things around.