Week 7 NFL Gambling Picks

On the Season: 25-21-1 +4.37 units

TNF: Broncos @ Cardinals

The Josh Rosen era has begun in Arizona. Rosen has started the last three games for the Cardinals, leading them to a 1-2 record. The two losses coming at home against the Seahawks and on the road against the Vikings. The Cardinals are 2-1 ATS in those games. The Cardinals are also 2-1 ATS in their games at home while the Broncos are 0-2 ATS and straight up in their games on the road. If the Cardinals don't already seem like the right pick, then take a look at all-time Thursday Night Football stats. Since Thursday Night Football began in 2006, home teams are 100-65. Home teams on Thursday Night Football are 5-1 in 2018. Having to travel on top of an already short week is not a good recipe for success. The Cardinals might end up winning this game by double digits.

The pick: Cardinals +1.5

Titans vs. Chargers (London)

The Titans are one of the NFL's most confusing teams. They come into this game coming off two straight losses, to the Bills and Ravens. They couldn't be facing a hotter Chargers team. The Chargers have rattled off three consecutive wins, averaging 31 points in those games. Both teams are 3-3 ATS this season. Five of Tennesee's six games have been against top 15 defenses this season, and in those games, the Titans are averaging a mere 13.4 points. The Chargers have a top 15 defense, and that defense is just good enough to slow down a bad Titans offense. The Titans will not be able to keep up with the high powered Chargers offense.

The pick: Chargers -7

Vikings @ Jets

Sam Darnold's rookie year has been filled with up and downs. At home. Darnold has been playing exceptionally well. The Jets are 2-1 at home, and Darnold is averaging 270 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions. Those four interceptions may prove to be a problem for him against a Vikings defense that thrives on taking the ball away. Darnold will be under fire all day from the Vikings' devestating defensive line and he will continue to turn the ball over.

The Jets are 2-1 ATS at home this year, but they have not played a team as good as the Vikings. The Vikings' defense will be way too much for the rookie quarterback to handle. The Vikings should win this game with relative ease, by about a touchdown.

The pick: Vikings -3.5

Saints @ Ravens

This line makes absolutely no sense. The Ravens should not be favorites in this game by any stretch. Drew Brees has beaten 31 teams in the NFL, and the only one he hasn't beaten? The Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens and the Saints only play every four years so this is likely Brees’ last chance to beat them. He could become only the 3rd quarterback in NFL to beat all 32 teams, joining Brett Farve and Peyton Manning. We saw the Saints play their best game of the season two weeks ago against the Redskins when Drew Brees was making history, becoming the NFL's all-time passing yards leader.

The Ravens have the best scoring defense in football, but they should be outmatched against a Saints offense that has scored 40+ points in three of their five games. The Saints are 2-0 straight up on the road and 2-0 ATS. The Ravens are also 2-0 at home, both straight up and ATS. Not only are the Saints the better team, but they have history to make.

The pick: Saints money line +115

Rams @ 49ers

The Rams have the best offense in the NFL and they go on the road this week against a 49ers defense that cannot stop anyone. The Rams are averaging 32.7 points per game this season. The 49ers are giving up 29.8 points per game. The over is 5-1 in 49ers games this season and 3-3 in Rams games this season. The over has only failed to hit in those three games because the Rams went up against the 26th, the 29th, and the 31st ranked offenses in the league, the Broncos, the Raiders, and the Cardinals. The 49ers offense has been respectable since backup CJ Beathard took over for Jimmy Garappolo, averaging 25 points per game in the three games Beathard has started. The Rams should be able to put up at least 35 points in the game, and it should easily go over.

The pick: over 52.5

Bengals @ Chiefs (SNF)

This is an interesting spot for both teams in this game. Both teams with winning records, coming off of heartbreaking, last-second losses. The Bengals took on their rivals, the Steelers, at home and lost the game in the final seconds on a long Antonio Brown touchdown. This was supposed to be the year they finally made a statement against the big, bad Steelers, but they couldn’t pull it off. This was a demoralizing loss. This way the type of loss that could ruin an entire season.

The Chiefs went into New England and put up a fight against the two-time defending AFC Champs, losing 43-40. Last season, the Chiefs started 5-0, just like they did this season and went on to lose six of the next seven games. The Chiefs are in desperate need of a statement win here to let the NFL know that they aren't the Chiefs of old and they will get that win. Patrick Mahomes is not Alex Smith. Mahomes is the guy that will take this Chiefs team to the next level, that they have been unable to reach before. The Chiefs will come out and beat up on a demoralized Bengals team. Arrowhead will be loud and the Chiefs will be fired up. The Chiefs should win by double digits.

The pick: Chiefs -6