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Week 14 NFL Gambling Picks

Bankrupt Your Bookie

via. Google

Season Record: 49-47-1 +1.07 units. 

We have reached week 14 of the NFL season, and the playoff races are heating up. This week's slate features some of the biggest games of the season regarding playoff positioning. Let's dive right in. 

Colts @ Texans

via. Google

The Texans come into this game as winners of nine straight and the Colts, winners of five of their last six. The Colts offense had found its rhythm again with Andrew Luck, and they were cooking, averaging 34.6 points per game over a five-game stretch. Then, the Colts ran into a bad Jaguars and got shut out in a game that made zero sense. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Colts now have just a 9% chance to make the playoffs. For the rest of the season, every game for them is essentially a playoff game. 

The key to beating the Texans is controlling the line of scrimmage, and the Colts have an offensive line capable of such. The Colts' offensive line has allowed the second fewest sacks in the league, with only 14. The speed of the Colts on the outside will give the Texans some trouble. I expect the Colts to end the Texans nine-game win streak. 

The pick: Colts +4.5

Saints @ Buccaneers

via. Google

These two teams first met in week one, where they combined for 88 points, and you should expect more of the same this time around. Both these teams have explosive offenses and not so good defenses. The Bucs' defense is allowing 29.6 points per game which is good for the third most in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, both sides are in the top ten in scoring with the Saints being second (34.9 points per game) and the Bucs being tenth (26.5). 

The Saints are coming off their first loss since week one so expect them to come out extremely fired up and looking to make a statement early. 

The Pick: Over 54.5 and Saints -6 in the First half

Patriots @ Dolphins

via. Google

The dreaded trip to Miami has come for the Patriots. With Tom Brady under center, the Patriots are just 7-9 in Miami and 1-4 in their last five. For whatever reason, the home team dominates the matchup between these two teams. In the previous 12 games between these teams, the home team is 11-1 straight up and 12-0 against the spread. The Dolphins are also 5-1 against the spread at home this year, and Ryan Tannehill is 3-1 against Brady in Miami. I can't really explain it; the Patriots just struggle in Miami. 

The pick: Miami +8

Broncos @ 49ers

via. Google

The Nick Mullens era was fun while it lasted in San Francisco. After putting up 34 and 23 points in his first two starts, the 49ers have scored 23 points combined in their last two. The Broncos are on a three-game win streak and a clawing their way into a playoff spot. It's pretty simple, The Broncos have something to play for, and the 49ers don't. The Broncos defense should give Nick Mullens, and the 49ers fits as they cruise to a win. 

The Pick: Broncos -3.5

Lock of the Week: Vikings @ Seahawks

via. Google

The Vikings and Seahawks are both right in the mix in the NFC wildcard race, but the two teams are trending in opposite directions. The red-hot Seahawks have won three in a row, and the Vikings have lost three of their last five. The Vikings are 2-3-1 on the road and 1-4 as an underdog, and the Seahawks are 3-2 at home and 5-1 as a favorite. The Seahawks are also 3-1-1 against the spread at home. 

The Seahawks offense has been on fire in their last four games, scoring 30 or more points in three of them. They will present quite a challenge for a Vikings defense that has had its struggles on the road. The Seahawks should be able to put up 30+, and their defense should be able to get enough stops against the Vikings' middle of the road offense. The Seahawks should win by double digits. 

The Pick: Seahawks -3

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