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To Sell or Not to Sell?

That is the question.

By John EdwardsPublished 7 years ago 4 min read
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Keith Allison/Flickr

Baseball has reached the two month mark. Teams are 50+ games into the season, and we’re rapidly approaching the 1/3rd mark. We’ve seen Michael Conforto, Aaron Judge, and Miguel Sano emerge as some of the best hitters in baseball, we’ve seen Justin Bour and Scott Schebler duke it out for the NL HR lead, and we’ve seen the Cubs flounder like a fish out of water.

It’s still quite a ways away from the trade deadline, when many teams pull the “buy” or “sell” trigger, but with a few obvious trends emerging, some teams may opt to pull the trigger sooner rather than later. Let’s take a look at what teams should consider going all in early, or tanking hard and hoping for the best when it comes to the draft.

Sell: Kansas City Royals

The question is not “if”, it’s “when”. While the Royals have managed to improve following a miserable 9 game losing streak, they’re still last in the AL. While the AL Central is arguably the weakest division in the AL, the Royals still face an uphill battle against pennant winner Cleveland and the upstart Twins, and a wildcard is almost certainly out of the question given the competition in the AL East. Losing Danny Duffy to injury may be the straw that breaks the camel’s back for the hard-luck Royals.

The Royals are primed for a productive deadline, especially with impact players like Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain set to hit free agency this offseason — never mind Jason Vargas’ sudden renaissance at age 34, again in a contract year. Now is the perfect time to reload the Royal’s lackluster farm system, which ranked 5th worst in baseball according to Keith Law.

The Royals got their World Series — now it’s time to refill the tank. Key pieces for the Royals like Salvador Perez and Duffy are around for only another 4 years, so the sooner the Royals pull the trigger and sell, the better.

Buy: St Louis Cardinals

Everyone predicted that the Cubs would run away with the NL Central in 2017, just as they did in 2016. Surprisingly, the Cubbies have stumbled out of the gate — hard. As a result, the NL central suddenly looks wide open — and the Cardinals have their eyes on the prize.

Despite the Cubs’ sudden mediocrity, the Cardinals still have some work to do if they want to push hard for the NL Central. Obviously, missing rookie-of-the-year favorite Alex Reyes thanks to Tommy-John surgery hurts, but the rotation is still in the upper-tier of the MLB.

The Cardinals instead desperately need outfield help — Dexter Fowler is making last season look like a fluke, Piscotty’s power has mysterious vanished, and Randal Grichuk was demoted to single-A-advanced. Some bullpen help would also be greatly appreciated, as the pen has cost more games for the Cards than they’d care to admit.

With a relatively deep farm system, now might be the time for the Cardinals to think about pushing hard for the playoffs. The Brewers and Reds are both cooling off, but the Cardinals could have the pieces and opportunity to push for the playoffs. Maybe they should.

Sell: Miami Marlins

Every single year, it’s the same thing — some sports blogger looking for attention picks the Marlins to make the playoffs on the basis that Giancarlo Stanton is healthy and the Fish came close to .500 the season before, but they never do. The Marlins seem strangely content with mediocrity — despite this being their 25th season, they have never won the NL east once, and only finished in 2nd three times.

The last time the Marlins broke .500 was 2009, and instead, they’ve hovered around 70 to 80 wins each season — always too good to get good draft picks, but always too bad to never make the playoffs. The cycle of mediocrity has to stop. The Marlins need to tank, and they need to tank hard.

Speaking of tanks, the Marlins appear to be running on empty — Keith Law ranked their farm system 29th. If the Fish hope to contend at any point during Giancarlo Stanton’s massive and bloated contract, they need to start reloading the farm system and push for the number one pick. The Marlins could also fetch a king’s ransom for Christian Yelich, whose affordable contract would be a boon to any team willing to pony up a pretty package.

Buy: Minnesota Twins

The year is 2017. And somehow, Ervin Santana, a career 4.01 ERA pitcher, 34 years old, is leading the American League with a 1.75 ERA. In June.

Whatever animal the Twins sacrificed to Jobu, it worked, and suddenly everything is going right for them. Ervin Santana is magically the best pitcher in the big leagues. Byron Buxton is starting to heat up. And Miguel Sano has sold his soul to Rob Deer to start mashing baseballs. As a result, the Twins are suddenly contending for the AL Central.

The Twins’ farm system is deep, and that’s with plenty of young talent already in the bigs. The Twins might not have expected it, but their window is opening this season, not two years from now. So, now is the perfect opportunity for the Twins to hop on board the contention train and make the push.

What does the deadline hold for the Twins? Perhaps a new catcher, as Jason Castro’s .216/.324/.376 slash line is doing him no favors with the front office. But the Twins’ biggest need is a rotation upgrade. Twins are second to last in the majors in FIP — no chance they’ll contend if that continues. Minnesota will need to acquire at least 2–3 decent starters if they want to stay in the AL Central race. Otherwise, it’ll be a cold, cold winter in Minneapolis this year.

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About the Creator

John Edwards

Staff Writer for The Unbalanced, Contributor at Sporting News.

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