Productivity Won’t Match Hype for 2018 San Francisco 49’ers

If productivity was decided by hype, the San Francisco 49’ers would be Super Bowl champions already, as no other team has seen more band-wagon-ing than the ‘red and gold’ this off-season.

Unfortunately, that’s just not how the game is won.

Garoppolo and company are still going to have to take the field for 16 games, and in there, win a few.

So, what’s standing in their way of glory?

A schedule that’s not nearly as forgiving as analysts would have you believe, a defense lacking the talent and depth to improve from last year, and play-calling that will be unimaginably predictable before the team has reached its’ mid-point of the season.

It’s a combination that’s dangerous to a team’s ambitions for success, and one that will have the 49’ers battling it out for the kind of awards, no one ever wants.

This is, the 2018 San Francisco 49’ers NFL Power Ranking and Projections

Off-season Additions

With only four veteran additions of any note, San Francisco had to pull double-digits amount of talent out of the draft to improve on the debacle that was 2017. Regrettably, they failed to do much beyond the additions of tackle Mike McGlinchey, receivers Dante Pettis and Richie James, and linebacker Fred Warner.

Defensive lineman Kentavius Street—a guy who easily could have won a starting role this year—would have been worth consideration, had he not suffered injury during the off-season. He is out at least until the midpoint of the year, and may ‘red shirt’ the season altogether, on IR.

Defensivebacks Tarvarius Moore and DJ Reed will contribute as rotational reserves this season, limiting how effective they can be to the 49’ers 22nd ranked backfield. A mistake, as each is more talented than their veteran counterpart on roster, free safety Adrian Colbert and nickelback Jimmie Ward.

With injured, aging cornerback Richard Sherman representing the primary veteran addition on the team; the off-season has been an unimpressive culmination of limited talent to say the least, with even more limited upside for the future.

It's the kind of failure to address areas of concern, that can set a team back a few years, or more.

Veteran Players: CB Richard Sherman (A-), RB Jerick McKinnon (B-), OC Weston Richburg (B-), DE Jeremiah Attaochu (C+)

Drafted Players: OL Mike McGlinchey (A-), WR Dante Pettis (B), LB Fred Warner (A-), DB Tarvarius Moore (C+), DL Kentavius Street (B-), CB DJ Reed (B-), DB Marcell Harris (C+), DT Julian Taylor (D+), WR Richie James (B)

Overall Draft Grade: B -

Roster

Projected 53-man Roster and Practice Squad

Offense:

QB: Jimmy Garoppolo, CJ Beathard RB: Jerick McKinnon, Jeremy McNichols, Joe Williams, Matt Breida FB: Kyle Juszczyk WR: Pierre Garcon, Marquise Goodwin, Richie James, Dante Pettis, Trent Taylor TE: George Kittle, Garrett Celek, Cole Hikutini OL: Joe Staley, Mike McGlinchey, Jonathan Cooper, Laken Tomlinson, Weston Richburg, Garry Gilliam, Darrell Williams, Coleman Shelton, Joshua Garnett

Defense:

DL: Solomon Thomas, Kentavius Street (IR), DeForest Buckner, Earl Mitchell, Jeremiah Attaochu, Eli Harold, Arik Armstead, DJ Jones LB: Malcolm Smith, Brock Croyle, Fred Warner, Reuben Foster, Korey Toomer, Jimmie Gilbert, Cassius Marsh, Dekoda Watson DB: Richard Sherman, Ahkello Witherspoon, DJ Reed, Tarvarius Moore, Jaquiski Tartt, Adrian Colbert, Tarvarus McFadden, Jimmie Ward, K’Wuan Williams, Marcell Harris, Terrell Williams

Special Teams:

K: Robbie Gould P: Jeff Locke LS: Kyle Nelson

Practice Squad:

QB Nick Mullens, RB Jeff Wilson, WR Kendrick Bourne, WR Victor Bolden, DT Julian Taylor, LB Pita Taumoepenu, LB Elijah Lee, DB Greg Mabin

2018 Projections

McGlinchey isn’t the only rookie lineman who’ll be a major contributor this year.

Undrafted rookie Coleman Shelton (Washington) may be a bit under-the-radar, but he has enough talent and ability to make the final 53-man roster.

With collegiate experience playing at all five offensive-line positions; Coleman is one of the few players on the 49’ers roster who can provide real value as both an alternate along the line, and as a special teams contributor.

Don’t be shocked to see his number called for starting time, if Cooper, Tomlinson, or Richburg go down.

San Francisco’s schedule is going to be more difficult than expected.

Despite how mediocre San Francisco’s schedule might appear, with its 128-128 opponent win/loss record, things will not be so easy for them starting off.

Their first four games feature a slate of opponents that combine for an overwhelming win/loss record of 41-23, with three of the four games occurring on-the-road.

It’s the third most difficult opening schedule of any team this year, as only Atlanta and Tampa Bay sport more difficult scenarios; and one, that could send the 49’ers spinning into an 0-4 start.

Jerick McKinnon will see more action as a receiver than as a rusher.

That’s not to say McKinnon won’t, or can’t, have some success as a rusher.

As a rotational reserve; McKinnon started 14 of 58 games he played for the Vikings, putting up just under 2,000 yards rushed, for an average 4.0 yards-per-carry. Those are numbers consistent with elite players like Le’Veon Bell and Todd Gurley, who have averaged 4.3 and 4.2 yards-per-carry respectively.

It’s instead, a matter of production and opportunity.

His history of production as a receiver has always been solid, and never more-so than last year when he went 51 receptions for 421 yards (an 8.3 yard-per-reception average) and 2 touchdowns.

Opportunities to expand upon these numbers will be plentiful under Kyle Shanahan’s command, as he relays much more heavily on their passing offense, than their rushing, calling pass plays 61.44% of the time.

Given the 49’ers schedule this season, and how often we expect them to be playing “from behind”; it’s probable that this number might increase even closer to 70%, making it more likely that McKinnon is used as a receiving weapon, rather than as a rusher.

Additions to the 49’ers defense won’t be enough to improve from '17.

San Francisco was one of the worst defenses in the league last year, sporting a 26th ranking in sacks and interceptions, 25th in points allowed, and 22nd in yardage allowed, both passing and rushing.

It was the kind of performance that would justify an entire overhaul of the defensive roster; and yet, the team remains pretty much the same.

Additions of veteran cornerback Richard Sherman and rookie linebacker Fred Warner stand-out as the prominent hope for the 49’ers and their defensive woes; though there are concerns as to how affective Sherman can be, considering he’s now 30 years of age and coming off an injury-marred year.

Warner should perform well, but he alone isn’t enough to repair a defense with issues at every level; so, don’t be shocked if this bottom-ranked defense from last year, remains in the bottom for 2018.

San Francisco will finish dead-last in the league.

After their 4-game throttling to start the season; things continue to work against the 49’ers up until their week 11 bye, facing solid teams like the LA Rams, Arizona (twice), Oakland, the New York Giants, and the Green Bay Packers.

With Gruden leading things in Oakland, and Rodger’s healthy return in Green Bay; each of these first ten games could easily go unfavorably for San Francisco, leading them into an 0-10 record before their bye.

If they can turn things around at all, it’ll be after this week 11 break, as they draw some teams of equality in Seattle, Denver, Tampa Bay, and Chicago.

At best, this puts them in position for a 5-11 or 6-10 finish, much like they were last year (6-10).

At worst, troubles from the early part of the year carry over, and the 49’ers find themselves a win-less team in ’18.