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Prediction: Adrien Broner Will Beat Pacquiao and Shock the World

There might be time to get back on the AB bandwagon and here’s why.

A chance for rebirth for one fighter’s career and a chance at continuing a legacy for another.


Understandably, people have jumped off the Adrien Broner bandwagon. The antics and trouble with the law have been headlining news articles more than his accomplishments in boxing. As a follower of the sport, I’m well aware of this. So you may be asking how someone sees the American fighter coming out of this fight victorious. Well here’s how I see it. For one Pacquiao lately has been a part-time boxer. He’s more politician than fighter. At the end of the day, he’s still human. Balancing two important jobs like this has to take its toll. Sure he’s been winning, but you can only go to the well so many times till it starts to run dry.

Reason two is the hunger to be the best. Every interview Pacquiao gives he tells the interviewer he’s still hungry to prove he’s the best. I believe he’s still hungry, but it isn’t to be the best. I believe it might be hungry for fame, attention or money to support his country folk. Maybe he doesn’t know this himself. Maybe he does deep down. At the end of the day boxing's history is littered with fighters who are hungry for the spotlight and get put out to pasture by a younger fighter who would’ve never been in the same league if the legendary fighter was in their prime.

Reason three would be Broner’s world-class chin. He’s lost but never been knocked out cold like Pacquiao has. His youth and string of losses in the ring and doubt from the public could all be the perfect elements to build an upset. This is Adrien’s first ever pay per view. He knows this is going to be the biggest stage of his career. If he fumbles it. He might not get back to that level again. The urgency of the situation can build the perfect matchup for the older fighter to fall. See Buster Douglas vs Tyson, Frazier vs Ali 3 and Leonard vs Norris for similar examples. (I know I’m going to catch hell for using those fights as examples.)

Reason four is probably the number one reason everyone thinks of when a potential upset is on the horizon when its legend vs new/young blood. Its Pacquiao's old age and change of fighting style. Going back to Pacquiao Marquez four it’s pretty obvious after that knockout loss every fight after that he’s fighting more cautious, and Pacquiao being older he’s slowed significantly. His style is based off youth and athleticism. Similar to a Roy Jones Jr. I see Broner able to capitalize on openings that wouldn’t normally be there if a “prime” Pacquiao was facing him the opposite corner.

Finally, how will Broner win? I see a split decision with Pacquiao possibly chasing for a rematch. I wouldn’t also be surprised if a KO happens late in the fight. Marcos Maidana has said Adrien had the most powerful punch out of anyone he’s fought even coming out with the win in that fight. Adrien must not stay gun-shy during the fight. Keep his hands busy or just busier than usual. Check the Broner Porter fight for the perfect example. Broner was heading into the 12th round clearly losing the fight. Scored a knockdown on Porter. Which I believe is Shawn’s only knockdown in his entire career. Shawn is currently the WBC champion also. I believe if he came out guns blazing earlier the outcome would’ve been different. Bottom line I think this is the perfect opponent for AB’s redemption. A slowed down Manny is just a step behind a guy like Shawn Porter. (Maybe.)

At the end of the day were all entitled to our own predictions. If I’m wrong and Pac Wins I see him chasing for Porter's WBC belt. (I don't see him getting the Mayweather rematch.) If porter comes out the winner Showtime/PBC can sell the fight as a former sparring partner now champion fighting the aging legend who put him on to the game when he was younger. Business wise this would be the perfect follow up match for the Pacquiao showtime/PBC partnership, but this is boxing we don’t always get what we want in the fight game do we?

Adrien scoring a late knockdown on Porter during their 2015 fight.

If Broner was more active, would the outcome have been different? Photo by Naoki Fukuda

Nothing but respect between the two for their first press conference.

Sarah Stier via Getty Images

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Prediction: Adrien Broner Will Beat Pacquiao and Shock the World
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