NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread

A brutal Week 1 opener recovered nicely with an 8–8 Week 2, so we are back on track. The Patriots finally won a game, the Jaguars suck again, and some order has been restored to the NFL universe.

Ten teams are still unbeaten through two weeks and feeling good. Another nine are winless and just need something to go right. Week 3 is when the wheat starts to separate from the chaff and give us a clear picture of which teams are actually good, and a few desperate teams will throw everything but the kitchen sink at this week’s opponent to get a result.

Week 3 looks like it could be a weird one, with 10 of 16 games featuring a road team that’s favored to win. So when things get crazy, we get even crazier. We’re steering into the curve and picking an incredible 14 road teams to cover in one week, including an early potential lock of the year.

Let’s get weird…

Check Out Week 2 Picks Here...

Philadelphia -5.5 vs New York Giants

This is in what Bill Simmons calls “the Vegas Zone,” the 5.5-point spread indicating that the smart guys really don’t know what to expect. The Giants have been pathetic in two prime time games. They’ve been unprepared and unable to move the ball with any consistency, and last year’s vaunted defense is nowhere to be found. The Eagles defense has stood strong for the most part, and Carson Wentz has been inconsistent but continues to make big plays. This one could go any direction, but Philadelphia has been much better so far.

Tampa Bay TBD at Minnesota

There’s no line for this game yet, because it’s unclear whether Sam Bradford will be able to play. If it’s Case Keenum under center, the Bucs will be the pick.

Miami -6 at New York Jets

This line feels high for a Dolphins team that’s tired after spending the last two weeks on the West coast and that played their entire base offense of Cutler, Ajayi, Parker, Landry, Stills, and Thomas on 60 of 68 snaps last week. Miami is ready to go home, and this should be a three-point line. But we’re picking against the Jets until they prove otherwise.

Houston +13 at New England

New England dominated the Texans each of the past three years with an average score of 29 to 7, and rookie QBs are 0–8 visiting Bill Belichick’s Patriots. But there’s something about Deshaun Watson that makes you pause. Houston played New England well in the playoffs but didn’t have that one guy who could keep them in the game. Won’t J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney make Brady’s life miserable all day? Couldn’t Watson make a play or two, keep this thing close? Is this Watson vs big bad Bama, part three? My gut wanted to take Watson last week and I chickened out. I’ll take him lightly this week against a Patriots team I don’t totally believe in right now.

THE KITCHEN SINK GAMES

Cincinnati +9 at Green Bay

The Bengals entered the season with playoff hopes and an upward projection before crashing to an 0–2 start that’s left their season on the brink of disaster. It’s been two decades since an 0–3 team recovered to play in January, and such teams have just a 3% chance of a playoff berth. Cincinnati must pull out every stop, play with an extra edge, give everything but the kitchen sink. The Bengals have been truly awful, without a touchdown in two home games. But Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton’s jobs are on the line, and Green Bay’s vulnerability lies on its offensive line and in its secondary, two areas the Bengals are built to exploit.

Los Angeles Chargers +3 vs Kansas City

This is the toughest kitchen sink pick because the Chargers probably have to win the game to cover, but we’ll stick with it. Los Angeles could well be 2–0 right now like the rest of their division had they not blown two final drives, and the Chiefs are probably overrated after such a hot start. Chiefs by three, really? It feels like a trap, like Vegas is begging us to take Kansas City. Don’t.

New Orleans +6 at Carolina

The Saints opened the season on a Monday night in Minnesota before facing a pissed off New England team, so you can hardly blame them for their 0–2 start. Carolina is 2–0 on the back of a strong defense, but the offense has not gotten going yet and is now missing stalwart Greg Olsen. New Orleans has been shredded on defense thus far, but the Panthers are not built to exploit that and the Saints, like Cincinnati, are probably playing for the future of both their coach and their quarterback. It feels like they’ll find a way.

THE 'THEY'RE-JUST-BETTER' ROAD PICKS

Seattle +3 at Tennessee

My eyes just about popped out of my head when I saw this line. I had it at three points — but for Seattle, not against them. Marcus Mariota might be a young Russell Wilson, but we don’t actually know if the Titans are good and it looks like they’ll be missing DeMarco Murray and Corey Davis. Seattle’s offense is a wreck, but their defense is still nearly impenetrable. We see this every year from the Seahawks. Pete Carroll has this team right where he wants them, and they’ll keep improving all year long. Seattle is just better.

Pittsburgh -7.5 at Chicago

The Steelers haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboards, but the defense has been strong enough that it hasn’t mattered. Pittsburgh’s allowed only 27 points against DeShone Kizer and Case Keenum, and it doesn’t get any more difficult against Mike Glennon. The Bears are bad. The Steelers are good, maybe really good, like two touchdowns better good. They’re better.

Denver -3 at Buffalo, Oakland -3 at Washington

Two fun matchups that feel like 90s throwbacks, both with surprisingly low lines. Denver and Oakland have crushed their opposition. The only time either was in any serious trouble was when the Broncos allowed a late failed comeback attempt by the Chargers. Buffalo has struggled to move the ball and isn’t going to figure it out against this Denver defense. Washington’s offense hasn’t clicked and doesn’t have the guns to match points with Oakland. Both games feel like one team is at least a touchdown better, road or not.

Cleveland -1 at Indianapolis

Cleveland has won exactly one of their past 21 games and they are favored? On the road?! Yes — and I’m taking them. You’ve probably already read my thoughts on the Browns this week. Rashard Higgins may be ready to break out at receiver, the offensive line is dominant, the defense is improved, and DeShone Kizer is making some noise. The Colts, meanwhile, might be the worst team in the league without Luck. Cleveland is not better than many teams, but they’re better than Indianapolis.

WEEK 3 BEST BETS

Baltimore -3.5 vs Jacksonville (in London)

Our first Sunday morning game of the year, and it promises to be a snoozer. The neutral location means no home field advantage so the bookies apparently think the Ravens are only a field goal better than Jacksonville, and that just doesn’t make sense. The Jaguars looked great Week 1 when they took advantage of a miserable half from Tom Savage, but Baltimore is allowing 5PPG and should eat Blake Bortles alive. Weird things happen in these early London games, but the Ravens are at least a touchdown better.

Atlanta -3 at Detroit

Both are 2–0, but it doesn’t feel like those records are equal. The Falcons lit up a good Packers team on Sunday night in a game that was never close, while the Lions have pulled away late in games against the Cardinals and Giants, two bad teams with no offensive firepower. Atlanta is one endless stream of firepower, and they’re even better on FieldTurf, which is what the Lions play on. This is going to turn into a shootout, and Detroit is bringing Matthew Stafford to a gun fight.

Dallas -3 at Arizona (Monday)

The early lock of the year. Why in the world is this line so low? Dallas won 13 games last season and crushed the Giants in Week 1. They’re not the first team to have a bad game in Denver, and they’re not suddenly bad. The Cards barely beat a horrible Colts team and their offense is built around a Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Chris Johnson trio right out of Madden 09. Dallas has lost seven of its last eight in Arizona and always seems to wilt in the desert heat with the wonkiest of results — all seven of those losses are by one score, each decided in the final two minutes, the last four on the final play of the game. History says weird things happen in Cowboys-Cardinals games, but reality says Dallas is far better and should be a double digit favorite. Arizona is a shell of itself without David Johnson. Dallas should roll.

Week 2 record: 8–8

Season record: 11–19–2

Best bets: 4–3