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Has the Qualifying Offer Been Worth It?

Players were avoiding QOs like the plague when they were first introduced, but now players are starting to warm up to them. Have they paid off?

By John EdwardsPublished 6 years ago 5 min read
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Arturo Pardavila III, Flickr 

The off-season is officially upon us, and the ups and downs of the playoffs have been replaced with hushed whispers of trade rumors and the frantic refreshing of Ken Rosenthal's Twitter feed. Free agents officially filed this Monday, and nine players were tagged with qualifying offers — one-year contracts for a league-set salary from a player's former team that, if declined, entitle the former team to a draft pick between the first and second round of the 2018 MLB Amateur draft. Of all of the players who have received qualifying offers, only five have ever accepted them for various reasons. How has each player who took the QO fared after taking the offer?

1. Matt Wieters, 2015

Matt Wieters took a QO from the Baltimore Orioles following a disappointing 2015 season where he was out until June, recovering from Tommy John surgery. Despite the late return, Wieters still made an impact, slashing .267/.319/.422 and appeared in 75 games behind the plate. Evidently, Wieters didn't favor his chances in free agency after playing in only 101 games from 2014-2015 after averaging 140 games per season from 2010-2013, and took the Orioles' QO.

Despite an All-Star game selection, Wieters' offensive numbers took a hit from 2015, as Wieters posted the lowest OPS+ of his career. Wieters also saw his pitch framing numbers decline further, ranking again as one of the worst-framing catchers in the majors.

Wieters entered free agency in 2016 with uninspiring numbers, but still signed a contract with the Nationals thanks to his agent, Scott Boras, being close friends with Nationals' ownership. The consensus was that Wieters was overpaid with his deal — and Wieters proved it himself the following season, posting a .632 OPS for an otherwise power-heavy Nationals team. For comparison, Wilson Ramos, who signed a two-year, $12 million deal with the Rays after suffering an ACL tear late in 2016, was worth 0.8 more fWAR than Wieters despite appearing in almost half as many games.

Wieters was the consensus best catcher of the free agent class of 2015, but after watching his performance decline after taking the QO, even the $10.5 million that he'll be paid for 2018 looks like an overpay. Wieters missed out on big money in 2015.

2. Colby Rasmus, 2015

Colby Rasmus did some really weird shit. In 2015, he hit like a starter while getting paid like a bench player — while on an $8 million dollar contract, Rasmus had one of the best seasons of his career, helping lead the Astros to a deep postseason run. But when the offseason came around, the Astros threw Rasmus a qualifying offer, Rasmus took it, and the next season, he proceeded to stink to high hell, posting the lowest OPS of his career. In terms of production versus pay, Rasmus certainly got the high end of this deal.

Rasmus then signed a small contract with the Tampa Bay Rays, and played his heart out for over a month before mysteriously leaving baseball altogether. Rasmus reportedly retired following a chronic hip injury, but in doing so, left a good chunk of change on the table.

Ultimately, Rasmus taking his qualifying offer was a no-brainer — it was almost double as much money as he had ever earned in a season, and his production from the previous season, while solid, still wasn't strong enough for a team to send him a big contract in the offseason. Rasmus made the smart move.

3. Brett Anderson, 2015

The often-injured Anderson finally put it all together in 2015, throwing 180 innings for the first time in his career and posting solid, if unspectacular, walk and strikeout numbers. Anderson helped the Dodgers to a postseason bid and was a part of a Dodgers rotation that looked primed for continued dominance. So when the high-spending Dodgers FO threw a qualifying offer Anderson's way, he chomped at the bit and took it.

What a lifesaver that was for Anderson. After it was announced that he would miss 3-5 months with back surgery in March, Anderson almost didn't pitch again for the rest of the year, and only made four starts, allowing 15 runs in only 11.1 IP. Anderson signed the following season for a $3.5 million deal with incentives with the Cubs, but didn't last the season there.

Anderson should be applauded for his decision to take the QO. With his health risks, any team would be unlikely to give him a long-term deal. If Anderson had managed to stay healthy for 2016, he could have seen himself landing a big contract in the offseason, but even with his injuries, Anderson still made bank.

4. Neil Walker, 2016

Walker was a model of consistency for both the Pirates and Mets. From 2011-2015, Walker never played in fewer than 130 games in a season, never posted an rWAR below 2.4, and never posted a below-average OPS+. He was also spectacular for the Mets in 2016, posting the highest SLG of his career and forming a brutal double-play combo with Asdrubal Cabrera for the Mets. But after missing almost 50 games with a back issue, Walkers' future looked in doubt — so when the Mets threw him a qualifying offer, Walker took it.

Walker struggled similarly with injuries in 2017, but still posted solid offensive and defensive figures and played in 111 games between the Mets and Brewers, and contributed to the Brewers' ultimately unsuccessful run.

Walker enters the free agent market this season in about the same situation as he found himself in last year. He still has an injury tag weighing him down, but his performance stayed roughly the same, and he's still the best 2B available on the market (if he entered the market a season later, he might have to compete with Daniel Murphy and Dee Gordon). Walker still got paid well above what the AAV for his contract might be, so ultimately, we'll give Walker the "W" here.

5. Jeremy Hellickson

What didn't go wrong for Hellickson after taking the QO? Hellickson had been the Phillies' ace for a talent-starved team, threw 189 IP with a 3.71 ERA, and posted a career high in strikeouts. Coming off of a season like that, Hellickson was possibly the best SP FA on the market, and could have commanded a large contract with an AAV at least similar to how much he would have made off the QO. But no, Hellickson took the QO, and fate followed.

After barely scraping by with an ERA under five for the hard-luck Phillies, Hellickson was traded to the Orioles and saw his pitching numbers inflate accordingly. Hellickson was ranked as the best pitcher on the market by MLBTR last season. Now? He's only an honorable mention on their top 50 FAs list. Poor, poor Hellickson.

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About the Creator

John Edwards

Staff Writer for The Unbalanced, Contributor at Sporting News.

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