Free Agency's Fantasy Implications

Fantasy isn’t everything, I get it. Players want to get paid, coaches want insurance plans for players. But this is a fantasy article and I want to dive into some Free Agent signings that were not great for Fantasy, and some that were. Whether it be for the player or for players on the team, I’m taking into account the position players were in last year at the end of the season going into this season and comparing it the positions thy are in now.

Let’s kick this thing off on a positive note and go over some “winners” after three days of free agency.

• Baker Mayfield, QB—Mayfield is the winner of all winners on this list. Adding a receiver like Beckham means only one thing for last year’s top rookie quarterback, another large step forward into fantasy stardom. I am all-in on Baker this year and I think he has the ability to be a Top 5 quarterback over all. Baker loves to spread the ball around; he threw to over 15 different targets over the 2018 season with five receivers, having over 400 yards on the year. Beckham’s overall game is stellar and adds only another top-tier weapon to Baker’s arsenal. I project Mayfield to finish the year with 4,000 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. Lock him in as a QB1 and a Top 5 QB.
• Josh Allen, QB—Another sophomore quarterback to make my list is Bills QB Josh Allen. Allen’s completion percentage scares me, it does. His accuracy needs to be addressed, but he is an athlete and his rushing yards make him a fantasy weapon, rushing for over 600 yards and eight touchdowns last year. He had the second most rushing yards by a quarterback last year; yes, more than Russel Wilson and Cam Newton. The Bills addressed some of their offensive line needs and added a few receiving weapons to go along with them. Cole Beasley is a tremendous possession receiver in the slot, and John Brown is a straight burner who should be able to track down some of Allen’s bombs. I see Allen throwing for 3,000 yards with 25 touchdowns and 15 interceptions, adding 650 yards rushing and another seven rushing touchdowns. Allen is at least a weekly flyer with rushing reliant QB1 potential.
• Dak Prescott, QB—Dak is pretty regular when it comes to his passing stats, he’s always good for about 3,600 yards and 20-22 touchdowns. I think the return of Jason Witten will help his RedZone numbers, and he rushed the ball more last year than any of his previous two seasons in the league. He is also throwing to Zeke more than ever, which will only help increase his numbers. The Cowboys play in a lackluster division against weak defenses that could pad his stats. Dak takes another step forward this year, throwing for 3,800 yards and 25 touchdowns with 12 interceptions adding 600 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, jumping into the Top 12 QBs for fantasy.
• Keelan Cole, WR—Maybe I am a homer and it’s just the Jag’s fan in me to put him on the list, but Keelan Cole is making strides to be the receiver in Jacksonville, and a viable fantasy option. Nick Foles and John DeFilippo love to air it out, and while I’m sure Jacksonville will stick to their ground and pound style of play, Cole is a weapon on the outside. He plays fast and has great hands. Foles will move the ball better than Bortles was able to, and the Jag’s have a lot of targets left to be distributed. It wouldn’t shock me to see Cole come up with 80 receptions for 900 receiving yards and nine touchdowns.
• Evan Engram, TE—Somebody has to catch passes for the Giants. No, seriously, who else do they have? As I am writing this segment, my alerts go off saying the Giants signed Golden Tate (read my article on Free Agent Destinations and you’ll feel my chagrin), but I want to leave Engram on this list. Beckham was a target hog for New York and Engram is an emerging Top 5 TE with Beckham on the team. Tate will factor into Engrams production over the middle of the field, but Engrams athleticism and the mismatch over linebackers will carry him to TE stardom. I boldly project Engram for 900 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns on the year.

Honorable Mentions:

• JuJu Smith-Schuster
• Marc Ingram
• Vance McDonald
• Carlos Hyde

We have to address the bad. It happens every year. Players are signed with unsure roles, players get demoted for younger brighter futures. Sometimes these moves work and sometimes they don’t, but this is Fantasy Football, we are here for the stats. Below are some players who’s Fantasy output and outlook are in danger following free agency.

• 49er’s Backfield—Coming from a guy who has Jerrick McKinnon on his dynasty team, I can tell you this hurts me to write. I was extremely high on McKinnon playing in a Kyle Shanahan offense, who regularly produces great fantasy running backs (i.e. Alfred Morris, Devonte Freeman). When the news broke on March 13th that the 49er’s signed Tevin Coleman to a two year $10 million deal, I was simultaneously sad for both McKinnon and Coleman. After flashes of excellence, Coleman seemed to be worthy of a starting role on a running back needy team. While McKinnon was looking to resume a lead role with the 49er’s after recovering from a season ending injury. Shanahan made Breida, Mostert, and Wilson Jr. stat friendly running backs when they played, it was just impossible to guess who would get the carries, which is a fantasy nightmare. I’m afraid we are witnessing an uncertainty to McKinnon’s health and capability as a 3-down back, and Coleman looks to resume his role he held in Atlanta, a great talent with limited touches. I don’t want to draft either of these players this year.
• Jarvis Landry, WR—This one was tough to write about because I am so high on Baker, but I’m worried about Landry’s fantasy production. Last year, Landry posted career lows in receptions and touchdowns, and his yardage was below his average. What I love about Baker is what makes me worry about Landry, and that’s that Baker loves to spread the ball around. Beckham will eat up roughly 160-175 targets, and is the clear #1 WR on that team. But Landry will have to compete for targets with Calloway, Njoku, Johnson Jr., Chubb, and Kareem Hunt after he returns from his eight-game suspension. Landry is still a great football player and an elite #2 receiver, but his fantasy value will dip this year. Right now, according to the FantasyPros, Landry’s ADP is WR18, which is just too high for me. Landry will be around WR30 this year, and I am avoiding him in drafts.
• Courtland Sutton, WR—Courtland Sutton is an interesting case when we look at the data, but this part of the article is about players who will be hurt by free agency moves. Courtland Sutton was made to catch the deep ball. He has good speed and plays faster than his 40-time, he is 6'4" and can go up and get the ball, and according to Player Profile he is in the Top-25 in contested catch rate. Wait, so why does he make this list? Well, last year, Case Keenum ranked #29 in yards gained per pass attempt and #26 in yards gained per completion. That’s not good, considering there were only 33 quarterbacks ranked. Denver went out and signed Joe Flacco, a quarterback who ranked lower in those categories than Keenum, #32 and #30, respectively. Sutton will not thrive on an offense that dink and dunks the ball around the line of scrimmage. The only thing going for Sutton is his ADP is WR74 as of right now, so he could be a late round flier, but it will be nearly impossible to predict the game or two he is a usable fantasy asset.
• Gus Edwards, RB—The Gus Bus carried a lot of fantasy teams into the playoffs last year after with his late season emergence as the Ravens clear lead back. After seeing only 15 total carries over the first nine weeks, Edwards averaged 17 carries per game for 93 yards once he became the starter in Week 11. That’s 5.4 YPA on a team that wants to run the ball…. on every down. However, Marc Ingram was signed by the Ravens and he is a rich man’s Gus Edwards. He is a hard-nosed, downfield runner like Edwards, but catches the ball out of the backfield. With the amount that Baltimore wants to run the ball, I don’t think Edwards will be totally relegated, but his touches should drop to around eight per game, which is deflating for a guy who looked to be a borderline RB1 coming into the 2019 season.

Honorable Mentions:

• Jordan Howard
• Damien Williams
• Adam Humphries
• Darrius Guice

While I might not totally avoid drafting the players who will be negatively affected by this year’s free agency, I will not be spending any valuable draft capital on them. With still some notable names left on the Free Agent market, this list may be updated. Jared Cook, Jay Ajayi, and Randall Cobb still need homes, and have the capability of affecting the fantasy world. 2019 looks to be another whirlwind offseason, keeping us fantasy freaks entertained, even in March.

Jack Miller

March 14, 2019