Predicting the First Round of the NHL Playoffs

Ah, it’s that wonderful time once again. Yes, the Stanley Cup Playoffs begin tonight when the puck drops for the Bruins-Senators series in Ottawa, and the Rangers-Canadiens series in Montreal, at 7:00 p.m, the first two of five games on the docket for the opening night of the postseason. What a splendid time to be alive.

However, it wouldn’t be the playoffs without a generic article detailing the predictions of an unimportant writer who’s likely to be wrong and mocked. That’s what I’m here, folks. To be that target. You’re very welcome.

Eastern Conference

Montreal Canadiens (A1) vs. New York Rangers (WC1)

A duel between two of the best goaltenders alive in Carey Price and Henrik Lundqvist, this should be a fairly even-matched series. The only two difference-makers from either team are the two aforementioned goalies, and either one is fully capable of stealing a series.

The Rangers wisely stayed out of the Metropolitan Division, as they likely would have been pummeled by any opponent in that division (except Columbus, perhaps).

That being said, the Habs finished with the third-best score- and venue-adjusted CF% of any playoff team, while the Rangers finished with the worst shot share of any playoff team. I’ll take Montreal in 6.

Ottawa Senators (A2) vs. Boston Bruins (A3)

Perhaps the least sexy matchup on the docket, it’s not exactly a close pairing of teams, despite what the standings might say. The Bruins are one of the better teams in the postseason in terms of process, and the Senators finished under the water in this department. Not to mention that Tuukka Rask is one of the best goalies in the league.

Craig Anderson has been a great story this season, and has the ability to play lights-out from time to time, but Ottawa is a bit of a paper tiger, and Erik Karlsson isn’t at 100%. I think this visual shot of NyQuil ends with Boston winning in 5.

Washington Capitals (M1) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (WC2)

This is going to be a really fun series. The Leafs are one of the most exciting young teams in hockey, and the Capitals are a well-oiled machine. Both teams have the ability to flick the switch and play high-octane offense. There will be goals galore in this one.

Or at least there should be. Braden Holtby may have a thing or two to say about that. The Leafs defense and goaltending just simply do not stack up against Washington’s. On top of that, the Capitals have to win the Cup this year, right? I mean, this finally has to be the year, doesn’t it? I think they at least get out of the first round again: Caps take this in 6.

Pittsburgh Penguins (M2) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (M3)

This should be another highly entertaining series. It’s the closest any of the series came to being an actual rivalry, save for maybe Boston-Ottawa (remember when the NHL said this playoff system was designed to maximize rivalries?), and is definitely the closest in terms of proximity to each other. Ohio and western Pennsylvania have been known to not like each other in the past, so this one may actually boil some blood — not to mention, both teams employ notorious douchebags, such as Brandon Dubinsky and Tom Sestito.

In terms of actual talent, the Penguins have a pretty sizable advantage. The Blue Jackets’ playoff seeding is the result of their 17-game winning streak; since then, they’ve been decidedly mediocre. They do have Sergei Bobrovsky, though, and he’s likely to steal a game or two, or three! Pittsburgh’s defense is pretty shoddy without Kris Letang, but so is Columbus’s outside of Seth Jones and Zach Werenski, and the Penguins also play a much better system. The Pens take this in the full 7.

Western Conference

Chicago Blackhawks (C1) vs. Nashville Predators (WC2)

Despite this being a battle between a conference winner and the lowest wild card, this series is going to be extremely close and extremely fun. Much like the Caps-Leafs series, both teams are loaded with talent — and this matchup is a lot closer than its Eastern counterpart.

Nashville has easily the best top-4 defense in the NHL with P.K. Subban, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis, and Roman Josi. They also possess a strong core of forwards, including Ryan Johansen and Filip Forsberg. Their only weakness is between the pipes; Pekka Rinne just ain’t what he used to be. Father Time is undefeated.

Chicago, on the other hand, has always seemed primed to slip after their long run of success, and yet continue to find ways to plug the holes in their lineup. Patrick Kane *gags* and Artemi Panarin continue to drive the offense and Duncan Keith seems ageless. Corey Crawford is an excellent goalie. However, I still feel the Predators take this in 7, but it’s a toss-up.

Minnesota Wild (C2) vs. St. Louis Blues (C3)

The Wild and Blues have been very good teams for the last few years, but have had the unfortunate task of being in the same division as, and often being matched up against, the Blackhawks. This year, they get each other.

The Wild’s results tumbled down the stretch and caused them to fall out of the top spot in the West, but the process remained the same if it didn’t improve. The Blues, meanwhile, haven’t had as strong a season as they have in the past, but they won a decent amount of games since Mike Yeo assumed the head coach position. Goaltending has been their biggest issue this season, as Jake Allen and Carter Hutton haven’t adequately replaced the work done by Brian Elliott last season.

Devan Dubnyk, meanwhile, played fantastic throughout the season but struggled badly in March. But, every goalie has a bad stretch. I don’t think it lasts. The Wild likely win the series in 6.

Anaheim Ducks (P1) vs. Calgary Flames (WC1)

The Ducks haven’t been the same under Randy Carlyle as they were under Bruce Boudreau (surprise, surprise) but they have the talent to overcome Carlyle’s poor coaching tactics.

The top end of the Flames lineup is amazing; it’s their depth that is terrible. They have elite players like Johnny Gaudreau and the entire 3M line (Michael Frolik, Mikael Backlund, and surprisingly excellent rookie Matt Tkachuk), as well as Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, and Dougie Hamilton on the back end. They also acquired Brian Elliott, and while he struggled out of the gate, it appears he has regained his form. I like the Flames’ chances here better. Calgary wins it at Anaheim in 7.

Edmonton Oilers (P2) vs. San Jose Sharks (P3)

I’m extremely excited for this, mostly because it’s Connor McDavid in the playoffs. The only player to crack 100 points this season, McDavid is one of the top two players in the world and is only 20 years old. His dynamic talent is going to be so much fun to watch in this kind of high pressure situation.

San Jose is a great team that returned most of the same players that went to the Cup Finals last season. They sort of tapered off toward the end of the year, but perhaps they were gearing up for another deep run. Still, they are one of the deepest teams in the postseason and they will be a tough out. I still pick the Oilers in 7 because of McDavid and the very-underrated Cam Talbot, but it’s another toss-up and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Sharks win it.