NBA Rookies that Will Struggle in 2017-18

A week ago I outlined three rookies that are poised to have successful rookie seasons. Jayson Tatum (BOS), De'Aaron Fox (SAC), and Dennis Smith (DAL) were all players with translatable NBA skills and are in situations with their teams that will help their development throughout the 2017-18 season.

Unfortunately, not all rookies have ideal opening campaigns. Sometimes you see cases where a rookie's role doesn't fit his strengths, or that their team simply asks too much of them. But more importantly, rookies struggle because their strengths in college aren't transferrable to the pro game, and that certain weaknesses are exploited more in the NBA than in college.

These three players had success in college and were all top ten picks in the 2017 NBA Draft, but based on their current skills and situations, I don't see them having smooth starts to their careers.

Zach Collins: PF/C, Portland Trail Blazers

Zach Collins was the first McDonalds All-American to play at Gonzaga, and he made the most of his role off the bench for the Bulldogs. He didn't have that much playing time, but averaged 23.2 points and 13.7 rebounds per 36 minutes. Those promising numbers and excellent shot blocking ability vaulted Collins into the lottery conversation for the '17 Draft.

He ended up deciding to go pro after his freshmen season, and was taken 10th overall by the Blazers. In the Las Vegas Summer League, Collins struggled with the physicality of the competition. He's still only 19-years-old, so his frame isn't fully developed yet. This allowed bigger players to dominate him on both ends of the floor, which will only get tougher against actual NBA bigs once the regular season starts.

Here Collins can't gain any position on the visibly stronger Semi Ojeleye, and is forced to take an awful shot from near the three point line. Playing in the post is all about gaining position, and if opposing bigs can force Collins outside and into the deep mid-range, it'll be easy to neutralize him on offense. Defensively, Collins will get bullied and pushed all the way under the basket to where his shot blocking is taken away.

Not only is Collins under-developed physically, but I don't think he's ready for the NBA game mentally either. If you recall his prolific per 36 stats, I'll add that he averaged over six personal fouls per 36 minutes. Collins is a great shot blocker, but easily falls for pump fakes and gets into foul trouble too easily.

Collins also made a lot of mental errors in summer league play, throwing terrible entry passes to rolling to the basket when he should pop off a screen. He even grabbed a rebound off the rim after playing decent defense, getting hit with basket interference as you'll see below.

Collins is going to struggle to find consistent minutes on a Blazers team that has playoff aspirations because e won't be able to work out his mistakes. This means he'll probably spend a full season in the NBA G-League, where he would've been better off staying at Gonzaga under Mark Few.

I hope Collins figures things out. He's a very promising prospect as a big that could ultimately do everything you need on both ends of the floor. Don't expect a solid rookie season from him though.

Lonzo Ball: PG, Los Angeles Lakers

Ball is a favorite for the NBA Rookie of the Year award, but I don't see him having instant success like others do. For starters, he plays the point guard position. If you haven't noticed, the quality of play from floor generals these days is at an all time high, so he'll have to go up against elite players every single night, especially out west. With that in mind, Ball just doesn't have the skills that make for successful point guards in the NBA.

In the professional game, most plays aren't fast breaks, so Ball will have to score in the half court. Due to his lack of strength, quickness, and overall scoring ability, he can't do that. That's why he shot 38.2% from the field in Summer League action.

He doesn't the strength to get all the way to the basket, or the quickness to shake his man. This makes for some bad shots in half court settings. Also, knowing he can't get by his man causes Ball, ends up taking deep, contested threes that never end well unless you're Stephen Curry.

For all the reasons why Ball can't create in the half court, the same apply to why he isn't a good defender. With all of the elite point guards just in the western conference like Curry, Westbrook, Paul, and Lillard to name a few, Ball will have a rough assignment almost every night.

So with Ball, you have a point guard who's main weaknesses are half court offense and defense. Not typically the blueprint for a successful rookie campaign. Also, the Lakers are going to have him run the show and have the offense flow through him. If he has problems due to his shortcomings on both ends, the Lakers will struggle, increasing the noise Ball's father created for him while at UCLA.

Lauri Markkanen: PF, Chicago Bulls

Markkanen was very good at Arizona as a lethal stretch big who hit over 40% of this threes in his lone college season. However, that's all he really does, and yet the Bulls picked him 7th overall. Markkanen isn't a great athlete, and lacks the ability to do anything on offense besides spot up shooting.

Here you'll see that if Markkanen's shot isn't falling, he's not very effective since nearly all of his attempts come from behind the arc. Without the necessary quickness or strength stretch bigs have at the next level, Markkanen will live and die from the three. He has a nice stroke which will help him bit, but he shot less than 30% from the floor in Las Vegas against better competition than college.

Similar to Ball, Markkanen's physical limitations hurt him on the defensive end. With an offensive game relying solely on three point shooting, and an inability to stick with opposing bigs down low, Markkanen is going to hit the rookie wall quickly if his shot isn't falling.

The Bulls don't have a ton of talent this year either, so while Markkanen will get a chance to get comfortable with NBA competition through repetition, it won't be easy getting thrown into the fire right away.

Collins, Ball, and Markkanen are all promising young prospects that could all prove me wrong with productive rookie seasons, but all of them lack transferrable skills right away that indicate they'll succeed early. That and the fact that their team situations aren't ideal for development, and these three rookies are poised to disappoint as they start their NBA careers.