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Breaking Down the AL MVP Race

If his name rhymes with "Bike Gout," he's probably going to win.

By John EdwardsPublished 7 years ago 4 min read
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Mike Trout via Keith Allison/Flickr

Honestly, a year ago, this probably would have been a rather boring article. Ever since his first full season in 2012, Mike Trout has made the AL MVP race all about him, every single season. It hasn't even been close.

To give you some context as to how unfair Trout is to the other members of the MVP race, year after year:

2012: Trout leads the AL in fWAR with 10.3. Second place is Robinson Cano with 7.6.

2013: Trout leads the AL in fWAR with 10.5. Second place is Josh Donaldson with 7.6.

2014: Trout leads the AL in fWAR with 7.9. Second place is Josh Donaldson with 6.6.

2015: Trout ties for the AL in fWAR lead with 8.8 with Josh Donaldson.

2016: Trout leads the AL in fWAR with 9.2. Second place is Mookie Betts with 7.9.

In four out of five full seasons, Trout has been the consensus best player in the AL by a wide margin. It's a shocker that he's only won the MVP award twice! While voters were slow off the block for Trout initially, many are finally coming around to realize that year after year, until he retires, Mike Trout will almost always be the best player in baseball.

Which makes MVP races rather boring. Sports talk shows have little to talk about with regards to the AL MVP, because the answer is always Trout!

But when Trout injured his thumb in May of 2017, suddenly, the MVP conversation got a lot more interesting. Trout spent more than a month on the disabled list, missing 39 games, and as a result, Trout's cumulative stats took a major hit.

So now, in determining the AL MVP, we now have to wonder—is three-quarters of a season of Mike Trout more valuable than the other contenders for the title of AL MVP?

To do this, let's break down the candidates. (All stats are up-to-date as of 9/16/17).

José Altuve

2017 stats: .347/.408/.556, 159 wRC+, 6.9 fWAR

Altuve had shown the tools and spark to be an MVP caliber player early in his career, but he finally put it all together in 2016, winning the AL batting crown and flirting with a 30/30 season. 2017 has been a continuation of those trends, with Altuve again raking in the hits, slugging for solid power, and continuing his great defense at 2B. Altuve has improved and improved every season of his career, and now he looks like he's at the top of his game.

There's little to knock against Altuve's game. He walks, he hits, he hits for power, he plays his position extremely well, he's a leader, etc. He does almost everything well. If it weren't for Trout, he'd be the clear MVP leader. But Trout is still here.

Aaron Judge

2017 stats: .276/.413/.587, 160 wRC+, 6.5 fWAR

Aaron Judge's story is a tale of two halves. In the first half, Judge was nearly unstoppable, raking to the tune of a 196 wRC+, 30 HR, and 5.5 fWAR. That's almost an MVP caliber season in the span of a first half! Unfortunately, Judge's shoddy peripherals caught up with him, and he's been miserable in the second half: .195/.361/.426 isn't MVP quality, to say the least.

But Judge is still in the conversation, largely on the basis of his first half. While it's difficult to see voters giving Judge the nod after his collapse after the All-Star break, he still deserves an honorable mention. Besides, I doubt that this will be the last time we hear Judge discussed in the MVP conversation.

Mike Trout

2017 stats: .316/.453/.636, 185 wRC+, 6.1 fWAR

So, can Mike Trout win the MVP without qualifying for the batting title? He did nothing but rake before the injury, and he has done nothing but rake since coming back. His 185 wRC+ figure is the highest of his career. He is striking out at a lower rate than ever, walking at a higher rate than ever, and he beats both Judge and Altuve in every important metric except for cumulative metrics like fWAR (by virtue of them having played more games), and Trout is now within striking distance of both of them.

The only knock against Trout this season is that he's missed 39 games due to injury. Even then, he's already provided almost as much value as Altuve and Judge. One can argue that Trout is being given the benefit of having a smaller sample size to boost his numbers—but even then, nothing about Trout's peripherals (or his history) suggest that he couldn't maintain his production over a full season.

Trout is still the best player in the MLB. He has continued to get better and better every season, and he's only 26. Is three quarters of a season of Mike Trout better than a full season of José Altuve or Aaron Judge? I believe so. Time will tell if the MVP voters think the same.

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About the Creator

John Edwards

Staff Writer for The Unbalanced, Contributor at Sporting News.

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