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2018 NBA Rookie of the Year Prediction

This year's rookie class is loaded with talent, and the battle for this award will be tight.

By Jason DandyPublished 7 years ago 7 min read
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(Sixers/NBA.com)

Unlike last year's Rookie of the Year race, this year's class of rookies are set to make the voters struggle mightily over who they vote for. With Joel Embiid only playing 31 games, his dominant campaign went unrewarded, and from there it became a coin flip between Malcolm Brogdon and Dario Saric. Brogdon took home the hardware in what was one of the least compelling Rookie of the Year seasons of all time. This season's race is destined to be the exact opposite of last year's, so with that let's dive into my top five candidates for the award.

5: Lauri Markkanen

(Arizona Basketball)

At the time of the draft, the majority of Bulls fans were disappointed with their team's decision to select Markkanen over high-profile prospects such as Dennis Smith Jr. and Malik Monk. After an incredibly impressive showing at the Eurobasket tournament this summer while playing for Finland, that negative tune has completely changed.

He excels in catch-and-shoot scenarios from any range, and has a sneakily good handle for a seven footer. He has a plethora of moves from both the post and perimeter that will translate to the NBA game immediately. He finishes strong at the rim and has the athleticism to get out and run in transition. His body is going to need to fill out more to sustain success, but his skills on the offensive end are already NBA-ready.

Obviously the European competition is not nearly as tough as the NBA competition, but that doesn't mean that we should just ignore his performances overseas. He has all the tools to be the ideal stretch four in the modern NBA and will be given plenty of opportunities to display his talents this season on a Bulls team that is currently going through a rebuild.

Predicted Stat Line: 15.2 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.3 APG, 47% FG, 38% 3PT

4: Markelle Fultz

(NBA.com)

The number one overall pick in the 2017 NBA draft was seen as the unanimous best player in the draft by scouts and analysts alike, so having him as low as four on this list may seem blasphemous. He is set to have a fantastic rookie season for a team that will be competing for a playoff spot. The only issue is that he will not be the one controlling the offense.

In a way to ease Fultz into NBA action, 76ers head coach Brett Brown has said that he will use fellow rookie Ben Simmons as the point guard on offense to orchestrate the offense. This will push Fultz into an off-ball role, which will likely limit his production and lessen his chances at Rookie of the Year.

Fultz's ability to score the ball in a plethora of ways should mean that he will find success playing alongside a playmaker like Simmons. His "hesi pull-up Jimbo," as Kevin Durant called his dribble moves, is able to create separation for what should lead to many easy baskets this year. Fultz has been compared to James Harden, who is another player that has been able to find success at both point guard and shooting guard, so if Fultz can be even half as successful as Harden he will have a great career.

Predicted Stat Line: 16.4 PPG, 4.9 APG, 4.1 RPG, 44% FG, 37% 3PT

3: Dennis Smith Jr.

(Mavs.com)

Possibly the most slept-on prospect during the pre-draft prospect, Dennis Smith Jr. showed the world what eight teams that passed on him missed out on in the Summer League. His athleticism is on another level, having posted a ridiculous 48 inch vertical in a pre-draft workout.

Smith Jr. has the quickness and explosiveness to turn any regular play into one for the highlight reel if the defense isn't on their toes at all times. He has been compared to Russell Westbrook coming out of college, but he still has a long way to go to live up to those lofty expectations.

Arguably his best attribute on offense is his ability to continually attack the rim and put pressure on the defense. He finishes at the rim at a very high level with his soft touch and his powerful dunks. His jump shot is inconsistent, but it is by no means a weakness of his. He made 35.9 percent of his threes in college, which would translate to about the NBA average.

He is expected to be the starting point guard from day one in Dallas, and will be given the reigns to run the show there, so he is likely due for a big rookie year. How big of a year it will be will come down to how long it takes for him to adjust to the NBA game and whether or not his jumper will translate.

Predicted Stat Line: 15.8 PPG, 5.6 APG, 4.5 RPG, 43% FG, 35% 3PT

2: Lonzo Ball

(Slamonline.com)

In what will probably be one of the most overly analyzed, controversial rookie seasons in years, Lonzo Ball is ready to take the NBA by storm. He may have started slow in Summer League, but by the end of the campaign he was taking home the hardware for both winning the league and being the MVP.

Ball naturally makes other players around him better and has elite floor vision already at nineteen-years-old. He makes his teammates want to work harder when they're on the floor with him because they know that he will reward their efforts by finding them with a pass at the perfect moment. The most impressive part of his passing is that he makes it look so effortless as he lofts a full court pass right on the money.

Creating for others may come easy to Ball, but he still has a lot to work on. His jump shot was very inconsistent in the Summer League, and his awkward form isn't doing him any favors. He needs to become a threat from deep to be a successful playmaker in the NBA. He did shoot 41.2 percent from three in college, so there is a chance that his struggles shooting the ball in Summer League were a fluke.

Ball still needs to improve on the defensive end in addition to his shooting woes, but these two weaknesses can be improved over time with practice and weight training. The Lakers might not be contending for anything this season, but with a core of Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram they are headed in the right direction.

Predicted Stat Line: 11.4 PPG, 8.6 APG, 4.4 RPG, 42% FG, 35% 3PT

1: Ben Simmons

(Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)

After sitting out the entire 2016-2017 season due to a foot injury, Ben Simmons is back healthy and ready to show the world why he was drawing comparisons to LeBron James and Magic Johnson out of college. Simmons is a modern day "point-forward" who will run the offense like a point guard but defend power forwards on defense. He is listed at 6'10" but there were rumors that he had a growth spurt this offseason and could possibly be 6'11" now.

Simmons' skill-set paired with his height and athleticism is going to create matchup nightmares for opposing defenses. He, like Lonzo Ball, has elite court vision and a knack for finding the open man right on time to set up scoring opportunities for others.

Also like Ball, Simmons needs to develop a serviceable jump shot to truly become a dominant player in the league. Unlike Ball, however, Simmons has the strength and athleticism to get buckets elsewhere. Simmons showed in college that he could score from the low post, and he can also attack the rim with either hand.

What makes Simmons stand out as my favorite to win Rookie of the Year is the fact that he has already spent a year around NBA players and has been able to train at a professional level longer than his competition. As seen in the past, players in situations like this tend to have more maturity and confidence during their rookie campaigns. Blake Griffin came back from missing a year to win Rookie of the Year in 2011, and Joel Embiid would have won the award last year if he would have been able to play more than 31 games. As long as Simmons stays healthy, this is his award to lose.

Predicted Stats: 16.5 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 6.2 APG, 48% FG, 30% 3PT

basketball
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About the Creator

Jason Dandy

Staff Writer for The Unbalanced | Follow Me on Twitter @HoopsReference | #TrustTheProcess | Currently enrolled at the University of Scranton studying Journalism and Electronic Media

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